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NHS 24
Thoughtworks

HOW IT WORKS

The Delivery Confidence Score

Like a credit score for your project—FireBreak's DCS reveals what humans can't see: cross-domain patterns that predict project failure 4-8 weeks before it happens.

DCS: Like a Credit Score for Your Project

Your Delivery Confidence Score (DCS) is a 0-100% prediction of successful delivery. It combines 6 dimensions using transparent mathematical models to detect compound risks that traditional dashboards miss—and the same inputs always produce the same score.

Workstream Health

Blockers, dependencies, and task completion rates across all workstreams

Budget Performance

Burn rate vs completion percentage to detect budget exhaustion risks

Timeline Adherence

Schedule variance and milestone delays to predict delivery dates

Decision Velocity

Overdue approvals and decision bottlenecks that cascade into delays

Risk Profile

Change requests, scope creep, and dependency chains that compound risk

Contributing Factors

Resource gaps, technical debt, and environmental factors that impact delivery

Unlike dashboards that show individual metrics, FireBreak DCS reveals how they interact—using statistical correlation to detect compound risks that humans miss. It's like a health scan that reads your lab results together: high cholesterol + high blood pressure + sedentary lifestyle = heart attack risk.

FireBreak's Machine Learning Sees What Humans Miss

Predictive data science and cross-domain correlation detection reveal hidden patterns that forecast failure before traditional dashboards show any warning signs.

The "Green Schedule, Red Budget" Trap

What you see:

Timeline on track | Budget 67% spent for 50% complete

What you think:

"Budget's a bit high, but we're on schedule—we can manage this."

What FireBreak sees:

Budget burn rate 1.34x → £68K shortfall predicted in 3 weeks. Current timeline DEPENDS on team size. To fix budget = 6 week delay OR stay on schedule = £68K overrun. You can't hit both targets.

Consequence Analysis:

"Escalate budget/timeline trade-off decision now or face emergency scope cuts in 4 weeks when budget exhausts."

The Decision Bottleneck Cascade

What you see:

2 decisions overdue by 10 days | Mixed workstream health

What you think:

"Decisions are delayed but work continues in parallel—we'll catch up."

What FireBreak sees:

Cloud Provider decision blocks 3 critical workstreams (API Integration, Data Migration, Security Setup). If delayed 5 more days → 2 amber workstreams turn red → 4-week cumulative delay → £45K in extended team costs.

Consequence Analysis:

"One decision unlocks 3 blocked workstreams and prevents £45K cascade. Approve Cloud Provider today or accept 4-week delay starting next week."

The Change Request Death Spiral

What you see:

5 pending change requests | Everything else on track

What you think:

"Change requests being managed through normal approval process—no immediate concern."

What FireBreak sees:

5 changes affect critical path, slow approval velocity (0.4/week avg vs 1.2/week needed) → 18- day approval cascade starting Week 4 → £90K budget impact from extended timeline. Your 'on track' status expires in 3 weeks.

Consequence Analysis:

"Accelerate change approvals to 3x current rate OR reject non-critical changes to protect timeline. Current approval velocity guarantees 18-day delay."

The Predictive Model: Cross-Domain Correlation Detection

FireBreak DCS's algorithms don't just track metrics—they use statistical modeling to detect patterns between dimensions that predict failure before humans see the warning signs. Every prediction is explainable and traceable to source data.

Example: Budget-Timeline Correlation

IF budget_burn_rate > (completion_% + 15%)

AND completion_% < 70%

THEN: Budget exhaustion before delivery

Your scenario:

  • • 75% budget spent ÷ 50% complete = 1.5x burn rate
  • • Predicted shortfall: 25% (£50K on £200K project)
  • • Time until crisis: 3-4 weeks

This is what separates FireBreak from dashboards—it calculates compound risk by analyzing how metrics cascade across dimensions. Humans see individual numbers; FireBreak sees the pattern.

Trend-Based Forecasting with Contextual Dampening

FireBreak doesn't use simple linear extrapolation. It applies intelligent dampening based on project maturity to prevent unrealistic projections while capturing acceleration in failing projects.

>85%

High Performers

Dampening Factor: 0.6

Ceiling effect prevents unrealistic 100%+ predictions

Projects performing well naturally slow as they approach completion. FireBreak accounts for this diminishing returns effect.

30-85%

Normal Projects

Dampening Factor: 1.0

Trend continues at current rate

Mid-range projects follow established trends. FireBreak projects trajectory based on current velocity and patterns.

<30%

Critical Projects

Acceleration Factor: 1.3

Compounding failure patterns

Failing projects accelerate downward as problems compound. FireBreak captures this death spiral pattern.

The Four-Week Warning System

See what's coming before it happens. FireBreak gives you 4-8 weeks to act before problems become crises.

Week 1
65%

Today: DCS 65%

Multiple amber signals detected across workstreams, budget, and decision velocity

Week 4
58%

Predicted: DCS 58% (No Action)

Budget cascade begins, decision bottlenecks compound, 2 workstreams turn red

Week 8
45%

Crisis Mode: DCS 45%

Emergency scope cuts, timeline slipping, budget overrun, executive escalation required

WITH Early Intervention:

Week 4:72%
Week 8:85%

Decision approval accelerated, budget reallocation approved early, workstream blockers removed before cascade

FireBreak's scenario analysis shows you the ROI of intervention:

Executive Decision Framework:

"Spend £20K now to prevent £90K crisis in 6 weeks—intervention ROI: 4.5x"

From Reactive to Predictive Intelligence

Stop firefighting. Start preventing.

Traditional Dashboards

Show yesterday's status

Backward-looking reporting

Individual metrics

Budget, timeline, workstreams in silos

"Budget 67% spent"

Numbers without context

PM connects dots manually

Human pattern detection required

React after crisis

Firefighting mode

Generic confidence scores

"58% confidence" (what does that mean?)

FireBreak DCS

Predict next month's outcome

Forward-looking intelligence

Cross-domain correlations

How metrics interact and cascade

"£68K shortfall in 3 weeks"

Specific business consequences

ML algorithms detect hidden patterns

Machine intelligence surpasses human

Prevent 4-8 weeks early

Early warning system

Transparent reasoning

"Budget exhausts because..." (shows why)

FireBreak is like a health scan that reads your lab results together—the combination matters more than individual metrics. On-track schedule + high budget burn + decision delays = project failure risk that dashboards can't see.

See DCS in Action

Experience how FireBreak's predictive intelligence transforms project risk management with real-time DCS analysis.